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Institut für Wasser- und Umweltsystemmodellierung - IWS

Abstract

 
   

"Bewertung und Systemmodellierung konkurrierender Wasserressourcen-Nutzer"

Water scarcity is among the main challenges to be faced in the 21st century. The demographic growth and the raised standard of living lead to an increasement of water demand. Since the climate change combined with non-sustainable exploitation decrease the available resources, many regions are chronically short of water. Unfavorable management, which is not equipped to adapt or respond adequately to water deficiency, exacerbates the situation additionally. This fact elucidates the importance of an equitable and long-termed management and allocation of the valuable resource. The emphasis of this study is the setup and analysis of a system model refering to the water regime of several concurrent water resource users. The main case study used in the thesis is the argen river, providing water for hydropower production as well as irrigation purposes of the local orchard farmers. Moreover, the water is important for the river to maintain its ecological integrity. Initially the water supply and demand during dry periods are compared. After setting the allocation, the different consequences of water shortages are determined and evaluated for several scenarios. Thus, the water management can be appraised and recommendations can be made. The results of the study indicate that the overall economic revenues during low water events could be increased by prioritizing the agriculture when distributing the available water. Furthermore, an increase of the minimum discharge in order to maintain ecological functionality, just marginally affects the financial incomings. Another conclusion is, that the feasibility of such goal conflicts in southern Germany is rather low. On top of this another system model is compiled, based on a second study area in Niger: the Kandadji-dam-project. The scenarios here are distinctly more complex and different impacts of scarcity of water have to be considered. As the project isn`t finished yet, the body of specific source material is limited. Still, the model exemplifies the manifold potentials of system dynamics within water conservancy.