Duration: 2004-01-01 to 2008-12-31
Department: LHG



The project aims to:
Develop an ensemble prediction system for climate change based on the principal state-of-the-art, high resolution, global and regional Earth System models developed in Europe, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal to decadal and longer timescales

Quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System (including water resource, land use, and air quality issues, and carbon cycle feedbacks)

Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs of the ensemble prediction system to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and weather risk management

Project manager

Bárdossy, András


Research assistants

Alam, Muhammad Mahboob




From: 2004-01-01

To: 2008-12-31


The ENSEMBLES project (contract number GOCE-CT-2003-505539) is supported by the European Commission's 6th Framework Programme as a 5 year Integrated Project from 2004-2009 under the Thematic Sub-Priority "Global Change and Ecosystems".

Cooperation partners

    Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

    Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques

    Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (including IPSL, LMD, LSCE, LGGE)

    Danish Meteorological Institute

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

    Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)

    Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

    University of Bristol

    Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie

    National Observatory of Athens

    Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

    University of East Anglia (UEA)

    Universität Hamburg

    CGAM, University of Reading

    Agenzia Regionale per la Prevenzione e l'Ambiente dell'Emilia-Romagna, Servizio IdroMeteorologico (ARPA-SIM)

    Aristotle University of Thessaloniki

    Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC)

    Société Civile CERFACS

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute

    Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO)


    Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche (CNR.ISAC)

    Charles University Prague, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics

    Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences (DIAS)

    Department of Agronomy and Land Management, University of Florence

    Deutscher Wetterdienst

    Electricité de France

    École Normale Supérieure

    Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich

    Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)

    Fundacion para la Investigacion del Clima

    Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)

    University of Applied Sciences, Stuttgart

    Freie Universität Berlin

    GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH

    Ustav fyziky atmosfery AV CR

    The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics

    Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia

    The Trustees of Columbia University in the City of New York (IRI)

    University of Stuttgart

    Joint Research Centre of the European Community - Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen

    London School of Economics

    London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

    Norwegian Meteorological Institute

    Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology

    Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center

    National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management

    National Meteorological Administration

    Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

    National Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM)

    Societé de Mathematiques et de Sciences Humaines (SMASH)

    Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE)

    Universidad de Cantabria

    Universite Catholique de Louvain

    Universidad de Castilla La Mancha

    University of Oslo

    Lunds Universitet

    Universität Kassel

    University of Liverpool

    Chancellor Masters and Scholars of Oxford University

    Université Joseph Fourier


    Universität Bern

    Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften

    University of Geneva

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